Weather forecast for human civilization

Quite a mixed bag, this year that is now drawing to a close. Humanity got quite a workout, testing its muscles against a plethora of storms and crises. A pandemic, war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and economic turbulence have called into question much of what we considered to be on a safe course toward progress. And yet, throughout history people have learned to cope and find solutions. Nothing that happened in 2022 was entirely new.

So it may surprise you to hear me say that in the final days of 2022 the year has something in store for us that feels different. Not crisis-like at all, rather more like the extension of humankind into the computer. Not destructive, but a veritable cornucopia of creativity, pouring out its bounty into nearly every daily task. And yet, this development could bring about another kind of crisis than those we have experienced this year.
Just a few weeks ago, artificial intelligence had its very own iPhone moment. Just as the iPhone enabled people all over the world to access the internet while going about their daily lives, large numbers of people have now begun using artificial intelligence to create images and textual content. Because it’s so easy, and because the results created by generative AI applications like ChatGPT and Open AI’s Dall-E are so impressive. It’s not just the nerds and the experts using it anymore. It’s anyone and everyone. And that makes an existential difference for humankind. Although the tool is free to use at the moment, the founders of Open AI expect it to generate a billion dollars in revenue by 2024.

The generative AI revolution is only getting started with systems like Dall-E and ChatGPT. A few years and a few hundred million dollars later, we’ll be able to see how it has conquered our civilization by storm. Because it’s so easy to use, and the results are so amazingly good, and human creativity is an achievement that requires decades of learning and practice. Expressing oneself, communicating in words and images, is the essential form of human existence and at the same time the greatest effort a human being can undergo again and again over the course of a lifetime. Why do all that work when there’s an easier way? When you can create prose and images at the push of a button?

Because reading and writing are cultural techniques, and they are prerequisites for many other human techniques and skills. We know – and not only because PISA studies are conducted regularly – how important reading and writing skills are. People have to master language as an active and passive tool to find their way independently in the world. When we read and write, we lay out a trail of reality within ourselves, which ideally enables us to navigate life and the world as enlightened individuals. It already makes a difference whether we read and write using paper or a computer. To grasp something, after all, originally meant to hold it in your hand. Only in the second, more abstract, sense does it refer to understanding its meaning.

There’s an entire line of research in cultural studies that insists that writing by hand inscribes things in our memory better than typing on a computer keyboard. It is indeed true that when we write, the linear order of the letters presupposes that we have a notion of the inner and historical order of whatever we are trying to describe. But even people who dismiss such positions as pessimistic cultural hocus-pocus should think twice about ChatGPT.

The tradition of essay writing in schools and universities is dead

OpenAI’s chatbot heralds the next generation of internet searches. Just enter a description (called a “prompt”) of what you want, and the bot writes you a story, a greeting, an essay, a poem or an outline for a book. The reason millions of people are now using ChatGPT like crazy is because it’s so incredibly easy, and the results are actually quite impressive. ChatGPT is somewhat of a personal tutor, a learning tool for everyone. The bot can retrieve information and combine it in new ways at a speed human brains will never be able to match.

That means traditional essay writing in schools and universities is now a thing of the past. You know, the kind of essay based on boring, stereotypical questions from teachers who have no desire to make an effort. ChatGPT is just as allergic to that kind of behavior as human beings are, and the bot simply churns out generic copy, empty and insignificant. From now on, when dealing with generative AI systems, asking pertinent, detailed questions will be more important than knowing good answers yourself. This could present an opportunity, because all knowledge begins with asking the right questions.

We’ll have to reinvent education

Why should we bother to educate ourselves when we can outsource that to artificial intelligence? Studies have shown that people no longer make the effort to store information in their memory when they know they can just look it up on the internet. People who are not able or not allowed to consult the internet are much better at remembering things on their own.

In view of this fact, a few dark clouds are gathering on the horizon, portending the systematic dumbing down of people by clever AI. Unless we want to end up in an endless loop where chatbots constantly remix historical data, we need to reinvent education. We need to understand how generative AI systems work. This should be part of every school and university curriculum, starting immediately. We also need to relearn how to learn, and for that we need to view human and artificial intelligence as a partnership.

This is nothing less than a new Enlightenment, which Immanuel Kant described in 1784 as “sapere aude” – dare to know, and have the courage to use your own mind. Back then it was about the power of the individual to understand and change the world through free and autonomous thinking. Today it’s about the entire species, and the human mind can only be sharpened by humans themselves. What AI then does with it is another story. At the moment the forecast is quite stormy.