Continent overboard

China's president Xi Jinping sometimes tends to favor figurative narratives. In a meeting with federal chancellor Angela Merkel, he chose the river metaphor: China is a great river, and the other parts of the world, all the European nations, are small tributaries that eventually flow into the great river of China. That sounds harmonious and unifying. Yet it's nothing less than a nicely wrapped image for China's claim to hegemony and a declaration of war on European sovereignty.

Wherever there's talk of rivers, rivers of data are sure to be mentioned soon. They are the new source of dominance. When they flow, they redraw the geopolitical distribution of power. The USA is now beginning to understand this. The newly created “US Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence,” chaired by former Google CEO Eric Schmidt, has issued a hawkish report that makes it clear that action is urgently needed. The “brutal truth” laid out in the 750-page report was that “America is not prepared to defend or compete in the AI era.”

This hard conclusion is based on considerable empirical evidence. China has set itself the goal of becoming the leading AI world power by 2030. To this end, the Chinese state alone is churning out $150 billion in funding for technological development. Russia's president Vladimir Putin says, “The nation that leads in AI will be the ruler of the world.” Daily we read about cyber attacks orchestrated within or even by nations that intend to expand and strengthen their economical or geopolitical position by consistently exploiting AI-based technologies like facial recognition, which is used in those countries to monitor and discipline their own citizens. The “infodemic” of disinformation via social media and deepfakes described by the World Health Organization is part of a strategy to weaken democracies throughout the world by means of a war against facts and truth.

These challenges also directly affect defense policy. They show the extent to which AI technologies are changing military deterrence and defense. Using AI and commercially available drones, it's possible to build intelligent weapons systems that can be used by nations, terrorists, or indeed any two-bit criminal. Artificial intelligence is a dual-use technology that can be put to civilian, commercial use – but also to military use, for good or ill. Military research was the foundation for many technological innovations now in civilian use. Without it, we wouldn't have radar, GPS technology or the Internet.

The EU is not prepared for any of this. It still sees itself essentially as an economic community. It prefers to leave important policy areas such as security and defense to its member states. In view of the military potential of AI in war and in peace, the EU must take a new position. It must finally abandon the role of mediator between the two AI superpowers, the USA and China, and develop its own strategy in a world order that will essentially be determined by AI. It won't be enough simply to question the ethical principles of military AI. To effectively negotiate and secure its own values, the EU must remain at eye level. We must also master the technologies we don't want to use. One can morally condemn the use of autonomous weapon systems, but to do so from a position of inadequate expertise may be peace-loving, but is simply naive.

This is precisely what could become the EU's unique selling point: uniting technological progress with ethical principles. “AI made in Europe” could become a viable alternative to American and Chinese offerings, and this global export advantage would have local benefits.  Achieving this requires clear positions, the right alliances (e.g. with the US government, which is open to this), and European companies that can analyze data at a military level on the basis of clear ethical guidelines.

To return to the river metaphor used by the Chinese president: Until now, Europe has believed it could continue to float peacefully, like Moses in a basket, among the reeds of the ever-growing AI delta. That won't work. For European AI sovereignty, the EU must also become a strong player in the field of military AI instead of swimming in the current set by others.